What COVID did to our forecasting models (and what we built to handle the next shock)
How Airbnb built forecasting models resilient enough to survive a global pandemic and whatever shock comes next.By: Harrison KatzThe week everything brokeIn March 2020, the forecasting models that had served us well in stable times faced a new challenge: predicting outcomes in a world that had suddenly changed.At Airbnb, many of the financial metrics we forecast depend on two separate events: when guests book, and when they actually travel. A booking made today might correspond to a trip three days from now or three months from now. The distribution of that gap, what we call the lead-time composition, drives how we translate today’s bookings into future revenue (see Figure 1).The pandemic r…
5 days, 3 hours назад @ medium.com
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